1. Context

Word count: 2971

The Ministry of National Development (MND) is responsible for planning Singapore’s land use and ensuring that public housing remains affordable and accessible. Yet maintaining price stability in the HDB resale market is increasingly difficult because of localized demand spikes, especially those linked to proximity to high-demand primary schools. While MND oversees housing supply and affordability, the market value of flats is also shaped by the Ministry of Education’s (MOE) Primary 1 registration framework. Under this policy, home-to-school distance is the final tiebreaker: children living within 1km of a school receive top priority, followed by those in the 1km to 2km range. When popular schools are oversubscribed, balloting is conducted within these specific distance bands, making the 1km mark a high-stakes boundary for young families.

This framework has fueled decades of discussion and strategic behavior among Singaporean parents. Many families are believed to pay a premium or relocate years in advance to improve their chances of admission. This raises an important policy question for MND: to what extent are HDB resale prices shaped by educational gatekeeping? This study examines price differences around the 1km and 2km cutoffs to estimate the school-related premium and its implications for housing equity.